who is favourite to be next us president As the crisp October air settles over Washington D.C. on this ninth day of 2025, the scars of the 2024 election continue to heal unevenly across the American political divide. President Donald Trump’s decisive victory, paired with Vice President JD Vance, delivered Republicans control of the White House, Senate, and House, while Democrats lick their wounds from losses in pivotal battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Yet, with Trump’s second term constitutionally limited, eyes are already turning to November 2028. Who will capture the imagination of voters weary from economic ups and downs, cultural clashes, and global uncertainties? Early indicators—polls, betting markets, and insider whispers—point to a Republican edge, with Vance as the frontrunner. But in a nation as polarized and unpredictable as ever, favorites can falter, and dark horses can thunder past. This deep dive explores the contenders, the dynamics, and the key moments that could define the next commander-in-chief.
The 2028 cycle arrives amid a backdrop of resilience and reckoning. Trump’s approval hovers around 45 percent, buoyed by stock market highs and border security measures but dragged by inflation gripes and foreign policy flare-ups. Democrats, stung by Kamala Harris’s defeat, are debating their soul: pivot to the center or double down on progressivism? Republicans, flush with power, face the challenge of succession without fracturing the MAGA coalition. Swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin remain kingmakers, where turnout among Latinos, suburban women, and young voters will tip the scales. Betting sites like Oddschecker give Democrats a slight edge to reclaim the White House at -110 odds, but Vance’s personal odds sit at a commanding +400, implying a 20 percent implied probability of victory. With primaries looming in early 2028, the race is fluid, but one truth endures: momentum favors the bold.
who is favourite to be next us president? JD Vance: The MAGA Heir Poised for Primacy
At the heart of the Republican calculus stands JD Vance, the 41-year-old Ohio senator turned vice president, whose improbable journey from Hillbilly Elegy author to Trump’s right-hand man embodies the party’s populist evolution. Elected to the Senate in 2022 amid Rust Belt fury over globalization and opioids, Vance’s 2024 VP nod was a nod to Midwestern authenticity. Now, nine months into the administration, he’s the undisputed GOP darling.
Recent polls underscore his dominance. An August Emerson College survey found 52 percent of Republican primary voters backing Vance, dwarfing Marco Rubio’s 9 percent and Ron DeSantis’s 7 percent. A September Echelon Insights poll echoed this, with Vance at 43 percent support nationwide. Even in early-state hypotheticals, like a Saint Anselm College poll in New Hampshire, he commands 56 percent. YouGov’s September tracker shows 65 percent of Republicans would consider him, far outpacing peers. Betting markets align: He’s the overall favorite at 23.9 percent chance on Oddschecker, ahead of even a speculative third-term Trump.
Key Highlights on Vance’s Strengths:
- Trump’s Implicit Blessing: At rallies, Trump has quipped about Vance as his “natural successor,” while family members like Donald Trump Jr. (polling at 10 percent in some surveys) play kingmaker roles without challenging him directly.
- Youth and Vigor: As the youngest VP since Nixon, Vance appeals to a base craving longevity beyond Trump’s 82 years by 2028. His focus on family policy—pushing paid leave with conservative strings—resonates with working moms who swung red in 2024.
- Policy Wins: He’s spearheaded Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” blending tax cuts with trade protections, earning kudos from Iowa farmers and Pennsylvania steelworkers. Approval among white non-college voters? A robust 58 percent.
- Media Savvy: From Fox hits to X threads dismantling “woke” critics, Vance’s sharp tongue—once a liability—now fuels viral moments, like his September takedown of AOC on border security.
Yet, shadows lurk. His pre-2020 Trump jabs (“cultural heroin”) haunt attack ads, and overzealous social conservatism could repel moderates. A potential Paul/Hawley challenge from libertarian and heartland senators might splinter the field, but for now, Vance’s path looks paved with gold—literally, given the Oval Office’s gilded redo that’s sparked liberal ire.
Democratic Fractures: Newsom’s Surge Meets Harris’s Hold
The blue side tells a tale of turmoil and tentative revival. Harris’s 2024 loss—despite raising $1.2 billion—exposed vulnerabilities: perceived weakness on crime and the economy alienated moderates, while progressives decried her Israel stance. Now 61, she’s mulling a rematch but faces a crowded lane of governors and senators hungry for redemption.
Polling paints a neck-and-neck duel. Emerson’s August release crowned Gavin Newsom at 25 percent in the Democratic primary, up 13 points from June, with Harris at 13 percent. Yet a September Newsweek/Echelon poll flipped it: Harris at 23 percent, Newsom at 17 percent, AOC and Buttigieg tied at 7 percent. YouGov’s September survey shows both as top “consider” picks—55 percent for Newsom, 54 percent for Harris—with Newsom edging as ideal nominee at 23 percent to her 19 percent. In New Hampshire, a September poll ties Newsom and Buttigieg at 23 percent, Harris fifth at 6 percent.
Newsom, 58, rides a wave of anti-Trump defiance. His podcast jabs at the administration and South Carolina tour signal ambition, while California’s progressive wins—climate pacts, abortion shields—fire up the base. “He’s the fighter we need,” gushed a DNC operative in The Hill. Betting odds have him at +900, tied with AOC.
Harris clings to historic gravitas and donor might. Black support remains ironclad at 80-plus percent, and her Georgia speeches rally the faithful. But fatigue lingers: June polls showed her at 37 percent, now halved in spots. Whispers of a Maryland gubernatorial pivot persist, per CNN.
Key Highlights on Democratic Contenders:
- AOC’s Progressive Pull: At 7-8 percent in polls, the 35-year-old firebrand surges in betting odds (+900) and youth appeal, per Axios. Her rallies with Sanders draw crowds, but electability doubts linger—Vanity Fair notes reluctance for a Schumer primary instead.
- Buttigieg’s Comeback: The 43-year-old ex-mayor ties for New Hampshire leads at 23 percent and tops a June Emerson at 16 percent. His 2020 Iowa win and Michigan move position him as a swing-state whisperer, though Gaza gaffes (repeating debunked Oct. 7 claims) draw fire.
- Midwest Moderates: Gretchen Whitmer (5 percent) touts abortion fights and “fix the damn roads” grit; Andy Beshear (Kentucky’s blue hope) eyes infrastructure wins; Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania gov) dodges but dazzles with budgets.
- Dark Horses: JB Pritzker’s billions, Rahm Emanuel’s D.C. savvy, and Cory Booker’s 6 percent nod signal depth, but unity eludes.
The party’s calendar shakeup—Nevada’s bid for first-in-nation status—could favor Sun Belt stars like Newsom over Iowa relics.
Head-to-Head Horizons: Vance vs. the Field
Hypotheticals tease tight contests. Emerson’s August matchup: Vance ties Newsom at 44 percent. Against Harris? Vance leads 47-42 in a YouGov sim. Swing-state edges matter: Vance owns Ohio (now +15 GOP), but Newsom must prove Rust Belt mettle beyond California’s “stereotype” baggage—homelessness, high taxes.
X chatter buzzes with speculation. Users like @WhiteJesusLive tout Newsom’s cleanup creds for 2028, while Kamala’s Harris superfans flood timelines with “Madam President 2028” memes. Anti-Trump barbs, like @Strandjunker’s “everlasting dictatorship” cry, fuel Dem fire, but MAGA faithful like @USATRUMPMAN1 revel in Oval Office gold.
Key Highlights on Broader Dynamics:
- Economy as Kingmaker: With unemployment at 4.1 percent and GDP growth at 2.8 percent, incumbency helps Vance. A recession could flip scripts, per Race to the WH averages.
- Generational Shift: Under-30s lean AOC (18 percent surge), but Vance’s TikTok-savvy populism nets Gen Z men.
- Global Wildcards: Ukraine aid fights and China tariffs could boost Vance’s hawkishness or sink him if escalations sour.
- Midterm Mirage: 2026’s off-year vote—GOP defending 22 Senate seats—could crown or crush early birds.
The Unwritten Chapter: What Tips the Scales?
Vance’s lead feels fragile, built on Trump’s coattails in a party where loyalty is currency but betrayal is swift. A DeSantis resurgence or Trump family feud could upend it. Democrats, per CNN, crave a “fighter” post-2024; Newsom fits, but Harris’s base is glue. Third-party temptations—like RFK Jr.’s lingering echo—lurk, siphoning 5-7 percent in polls.
Ultimately, 2028 hinges on turnout: Will suburban remorse over Trump 2.0 mobilize blues? Can Vance humanize beyond “Hillbilly” tropes? As Ballotpedia notes, no announcements yet, but jockeying intensifies—Emanuel’s March gearing, Beshear’s July Vanity Fair tease. In this marathon, today’s favorite is tomorrow’s footnote. Yet, on October 9, 2025, JD Vance stands tallest, a bridge from MAGA’s past to its future. America watches, ballots at the ready.
Frequently Asked Questions
1.] When will the 2028 U.S. presidential election be held?
The 2028 U.S. presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Voters across all states will choose the next President and Vice President of the United States.
2.] Who can run for president in the 2028 election?
Any U.S. citizen who is at least 35 years old, a natural-born citizen, and has lived in the country for at least 14 years is eligible to run for president in 2028.
3.] How are the favorites for the 2028 U.S. presidential election determined?
Favorites are often based on public opinion polls, political influence, party support, and early campaign performance. Media coverage and debates also play a major role in shaping public perception.
4.] When will official candidates for the 2028 U.S. presidential race be announced?
Most candidates begin announcing their campaigns between late 2026 and mid-2027, before the primary elections begin in early 2028.
5.] Where can I find updates on who is favourite to be next U.S. president in 2028?
Reliable updates can be found on official news websites, government election portals, and major media outlets that track political developments and opinion polls.
